Research.
Evidence-forward writing on how prediction markets actually work — the record on accuracy, where a price comes from, how an honest venue settles, and where the category is heading. Category analysis citing published third-party work; not product promises.
How this desk works — methodology, verification standards & corrections
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How to judge a prediction-market venue
Fair, liquid, transparent: the category's standard claims. Six questions turn each one into a document you can go and find — before your funds move.
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The probability layer: when a price becomes data
Exchange groups keep discovering that their data outlives their volume. What a settled probability is worth — and what a clean archive requires.
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Market makers, disclosed: where liquidity comes from on a young venue
Every market opens empty. What a market maker does, why exchanges pay for disclosed liquidity, and how to tell an honest book from a crowd that isn't one.
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How an honest venue settles a question
Every market is a promise about a future fact. What clean settlement looks like — and why a record is only clean if it was clean from day one.
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Where a market price comes from
Nobody sets a prediction-market price. How a two-sided order book turns disagreement into a number — what moves the price, and what can't.
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Are prediction markets accurate? What the record actually shows
Decades of published research on prediction-market accuracy — where markets beat polls and experts, where they don't, and what a calibrated price even means.