Evidence-forward writing on how prediction markets work: accuracy, price formation, settlement integrity, market-maker disclosure, and the category’s regulated turn.https://majjha.com/researchenhttps://majjha.com/research/how-to-judge-a-prediction-market-venuehttps://majjha.com/research/how-to-judge-a-prediction-market-venueFair, liquid, transparent: the category's standard claims. Six questions turn each one into a document you can go and find — before your funds move.Thu, 30 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://majjha.com/research/the-probability-layerhttps://majjha.com/research/the-probability-layerExchange groups keep discovering that their data outlives their volume. What a settled probability is worth — and what a clean archive requires.Mon, 27 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://majjha.com/research/market-makers-disclosedhttps://majjha.com/research/market-makers-disclosedEvery market opens empty. What a market maker does, why exchanges pay for disclosed liquidity, and how to tell an honest book from a crowd that isn't one.Thu, 23 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://majjha.com/research/how-an-honest-venue-settles-a-questionhttps://majjha.com/research/how-an-honest-venue-settles-a-questionEvery market is a promise about a future fact. What clean settlement looks like — and why a record is only clean if it was clean from day one.Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://majjha.com/research/where-a-market-price-comes-fromhttps://majjha.com/research/where-a-market-price-comes-fromNobody sets a prediction-market price. How a two-sided order book turns disagreement into a number — what moves the price, and what can't.Thu, 16 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://majjha.com/research/are-prediction-markets-accuratehttps://majjha.com/research/are-prediction-markets-accurateDecades of published research on prediction-market accuracy — where markets beat polls and experts, where they don't, and what a calibrated price even means.Sat, 11 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT